1 Percent Doctrine

Friedman has lost a little luster in my eyes with his giant home in Maryland but he doesn't continue to provide spirited argument for massive, unconditional action to prevent climate change. His post today compares America's over the top, precautionary strategy on terrorism to it's terribly slack and unhurried pace to combat climate change.

The set-up:

“According to the Precautionary Principle, it is appropriate to respond aggressively to low-probability, high-impact events — such as climate change. Indeed, another vice president — Al Gore — can be understood to be arguing for a precautionary principle for climate change (though he believes that the chance of disaster is well over 1 percent).”

I would say it's well over 1 percent.

And now for the prestige:

When I see a problem that has even a 1 percent probability of occurring and is “irreversible” and potentially “catastrophic,” I buy insurance. That is what taking climate change seriously is all about.

Yeah, a nuke attack would be bad but it'd be mostly regional in scope and it's negative effects could be mitigated over a time span more suited to the humans who have to live through it. Climate change has a good chance of being permanent and a 100 percent change of affecting every living thing on earth on a timeline longer than most humans can comprehend.