Silent Spring

Kristof seems to be toxic hound at the NYT. His latest piece highlights many of the same arguments from Silent Spring.

“There are diseases that are increasing in the population that we have no known cause for,” said Alan M. Goldberg, a professor of toxicology at the Bloomberg School of Public Health at Johns Hopkins University. “Breast cancer, prostate cancer, autism are three examples. The potential is for these diseases to be on the rise because of chemicals in the environment.”

"And now we are in trouble."

Little kids believe ghost stories because in part, they don't enough for it to be not true and two, because they haven't been around enough people to tell them it isn't as well. Peak Oil is like a ghost story for adults except adult ghost stories usually are true, i.e. STD's, divorce settlement's, etc. The Oil Drum has a nice article on how the poorly educated (only men can read) Italian gypsies get Peak Oil while the "gadje" are indifferent to the truth after being told by so many folks that technology, "they", will save us.

The closing quote is particularly and hauntingly poignant.

You see, professor, I think you were right with your lesson. Yeah, you told us that things are not going to be so easy as they used to be. Right, we saw that, too. It is what's happening. You know, I remember when we came here from Yugoslavia. I was a child; I was 10 years old but I remember that very well. It was so different, here. We saw so much wealth: lights and cars and houses and stuff in the supermarkets. Yeah, we had never seen anything like that.

In Yugoslavia there was nothing. And so, we were all very happy, but I think we made a big mistake. You know; I remember my grandfather. He was a good man; he could work metals; he could fix pots and pans and sharpen knives. So, he told me that I should learn his job; but I didn't want to. I was very young; I wasn't that smart but, see, professor, I think we all made the same mistake. Many of the old folks could do things. Like singing or playing instruments, buying and selling horses.

But we can't do that any more. We didn't want to learn. We saw all this wealth, here, and we thought that there was no need of working so hard. If there was so much wealth; why couldn't we share a little of it? We didn't want to be rich; we just wanted a little - enough to live in peace. And we thought it would last forever. But, you are right, professor, it is not going to last forever. And now we are in trouble.

Pictures of Collapse

Here's a glimpse of what the world might look like as the abundant, cheap energy so prevelent today fades into oblivion. Spookily awesome.

Is It Worth Saving?

Haiti was one the countries Jared Diamond chose to highlight in his book Collapse along with China, Australia and a few others. It's basically deforested most of it's half of the island to add to it's incredible over-population problem. Some people think this latest disaster is a wake-up call to the Haitians imminent extinction. With a population density 10x the U.S., will this mass destruction of Haiti's infrastructure allow them to survive? Is it even worth it.

They Are Rolling in Their Graves

Look at how far we've fallen. 51% of Americans would give up some liberties for security. I can only see this as a clear indictment of the media's portrayal of terrorist events causing Americans to abandon all rational thought on the matter. There's even a book about it.

Who makes up this 51%? It would have to be folks from both blue and red states and would have to include some "Tea Party'ers" (or it is Partiers?). This is what makes it truly astonishing. Our country was founded by a collective of rationalist, Deist thinkers yet this fact seems to be lost on most Americans. The founding fathers real ideas and goals have been dashed upon the shit pile that most Americans root from to achieve an "education". We love the line, "Give me liberty or give me death", which we only apply to injustices (gun control, increased taxes, etc) that haven't actually happened yet seem to ignore quotes like Ben Franklin's,"Those who give up their liberty for security deserve neither liberty or security." Yes, it's widely used post-9/11 and is something I feel falls too far into the problems of civilization to be something humans should follow but the fact that people calmly neglect this truth from the cries of patriotism is full proof the level of ignorance that encases most Americans view of reality.

The reality is that terror attacks in the world, let alone on American civilians, and even more so on American soil are incredibly rare. Yes, there are plotters our there and yes, there are weekly bombings in Iraq/Afghanistan/Pakistan but nearly all of that was brought upon by U.S. encroachment in those countries. But the fact is that 9/11's or WTC '93 bombings or even Richard Reid shoe bombers are statistically insignificant. People are afraid to fly but willingly drive in cars daily though car fatalities are way more common than plane crashes. Toss terror-influenced plan crashes into the mix and the ration is even more lopsided. We do need to keep an ever-watching eye on our enemies but at the same time we don't have to cut off the leg for an infection on the pinkie toe.

The Cost of Community

John Michael Greer, my favorite Druid, has a great post on community. It's something I think a lot about. His point about cherry-picking a community of like minded folks to start a community still doesn't allow you to evade the emotional and time sacrifices needed for a community to actually be a community. You can start by showing up, shaking hands and a smile. Then doing that at each meeting and turning off Lost a few minutes early to spend some time working on it.

I'd have posted the excerpt but I'm having technical difficulties.

Scary Speech

Michael Ruppert has a scary documentary that I believe it out of theaters already. (who would have thought?!) But he gives a scarier speech. Here's some snippets from 2005.

From Grandpa Dick Cheney:

“…For the world as a whole, oil companies are expected to keep finding and developing enough oil to offset our 71 million-plus barrel a day of oil depletion [today it’s 84 million], but also to meet new demand. By some estimates there will be an average of two percent annual growth in global oil demand over the years ahead along with conservatively a three percent natural decline in production from existing reserves. That means by 2010 we will need on the order of an additional 50 million barrels a day… So where is the oil going to come from? ....

Yikes, he also basically admits that we went into Iraq for oil the second time too.

“… Energy is truly fundamental to the world’s economy. The Gulf War was a reflection of that reality… It is the basic, fundamental building block of the world’s economy…

But Ruppert gets scary when he talks about the real government solution. That sounds about exactly how they'd handle it.

We are witnessing government response to Peak Oil now. In my earlier
presentation I have made it clear that that response will include only measures
which protect the financial elites and major corporations.

They include:

1. Rationing

2. More Coal and Nuclear – Emphasis on Fisher-Tropsch Coal-to-Liquids
Conversion.

3. Suspended Environmental and Drilling Restrictions

4. Protection of Critical Infrastructure

5. Strengthening and Reinforcing Domestic Military
Operations – Suspension of Posse Comitatus

6. Suspension and Relaxation of Labor and Minimum Wage Laws.

7. Changing and Tightening the Bankruptcy Laws Allowing Fewer Distressed Consumers to Discharge Debts.

8. Allowing and Facilitating Population Reduction through Famine and Disease.

9. Strengthening and Giving More Power to FEMA. (this Fema)

10. Destroying Demand Through Economic Collapse and Allocating Scarce Resources – by Force if Necessary – to Protect the Interests of the Wealthiest Communities and Interests in the Country.

Sounds about right.

Avatar, Enough Said

Lots of conservatives hate Avatar. It only reflects poorly on them.

My thoughts (taken from a written conversation):

I have seen it and it was an awesome time. The movie really is a spectacle for the eye. The 3d adds so much depth to just about any scene and made the actions scenes exhilarating. When I left I was so bummed out to walk into drab dreary grey slush. You really need to go see it 3d in theatres. Prob the 2nd best action film only to Dark Knight.

It does have a lot of environmentalism, feminism, etc and it's along those lines that people will be divided. The movie brings in a lot of issues and people should wonder why they are so offended by them. If they are then they should just sit through the bucolic crap of any Marvel blockbuster or R rated shootem up. Issues though are what make great cinema. It's true conflict. Even Dark Knight was a commentary on terrorism. See the Slate review. Tthe Dark Knight's critique was based in this world with a lunatic villain who we were never supposed to side with. In Avatar, the villain is us.

Avatar's issues are all issues we haven't dealt with. It focuses on natural resource and native cultural abuses that have been part of civilization for forever. If Americans think fair play and giving a hand are part of what it means to be an American than there is a conflict of interest in how we, today, and how the human characters in the movie conduct themselves. We go into countries, mostly with a smile and a knife behind our back, or if they doesn't work, with tanks and cruise missiles, and setup agreements or just plain take what we want. Avatar parallels what happened to the Sioux in the Black Hills, the Incas in the Andes, and is happening now to the Iraqis. These are big time open sores that make for great cinema and hurt as well.

I would question why they hate it. Cinema wise it's not the most unique script. There are plenty of movies that say the same thing but that's the same in any genre. Do you not like the downer human message? Then you prob don't like Schindler's list or any movie that showcases negative human behavior. Do you not like feminism or anti-Americanism? Then you're not comfortable with the reality of what America does in the real world and not a student of history. Only until civilization was created did women become unequal and cultures wipe out other cultures for resources. You end up looking like a fool or a bigot or a philistine. Your pick.

On a cinematic note, the Navi are the underdog which has a big place in American culture. We were UD's against the Brits but now that we are in charge do we not like that side of the bed. The humans in the film and in reality have the technology to basically kill or conquer anything they want which basically puts anything non-human as an underdog. Star Wars is an underdog story? The Empire could blow up planets in one shot so why is no one complaining about rebel humans blowing up the big bad Death Star?

I get worked up about this stuff.

More Conservative dislike on pantheism.

His piece is fatalist and skews the message of Avatar, Dances with Wolves, etc. His basic problem seems to be that humans love pantheism because they feel guilty about there relationship to nature and are jealous of the freedom that pantheism offers. He finally questions Nature as religion in purely human terms: can nature classify right and wrong. He complains that in nature there is death and ruthlessness and for this reason nature can never be a religion.

There is a saying that there is no right or wrong but thinking makes it so and this is the first step down the wrong path Douthat travels. He declares we "live in two worlds" and so therefore the religion nature could provide is not enough for us. We need to go beyond natural laws to create laws only applicable to human behavior. The problem is we already had laws to govern human behavior. Native Americans watched how animals and nature behaved are coordinated their lives by the same rules. Religion condones the human right to dominate the world by putting man at the center of the equation. If we followed a religion that focused more on nature we'd have think twice about mowing down forests, poisoning and choking off rivers, etc. The fact is we do live in both worlds and we have to respect both worlds because if we don't, Douthat will be right, there will go back to ashes along with everything else.

On a side note, the fact that pantheism is packaged to America in giant, expensive, blockbuster movies and is commercialised in the book racks is something that is not lost on me. I figured that if he mounted a legal campaign against a major polluter or bought up land for a reserve with that 500 million that it'd be a better example of pantheism than blue giant aliens fighting humans. But that's his talent and if it can help change some people maybe they will do the real work.

Climate-gate in Video!

I was waiting for these to come out. Peter Sinclair's outstanding "Climate Crock of the Week" has a two parter on those darned climate emails that came out a while back. I've posted on these videos before and Sinclair again delivers a very well produced, logical, and clear refutation of Climategate.

Part 1

Part 2


"He said "anus"".

Govt Fail #1,432

Krugman does my work for me. His post today on the problems of voting majority in the Senate says what I would say with just more Nobel prize gravitas.

It was, however, a close-run thing. And the fact that it was such a close thing shows that the Senate — and, therefore, the U.S. government as a whole — has become ominously dysfunctional.

Amen.

The Real Children's Fantasy

Here's one more children's' fantasy video. We already have Lion, Witch & the Wardrobe, Bridge to Terabithia, The Golden Compass, and all those other generic ones where the bummed out kid is befriended by a talking animal who tells them they are a prince/princess. This new one makes Where The Wild Things Are look like The Wizard of Oz. In this movie the animals don't talk but are instead all dying and the kids no longer wonder if they'll make the basketball team but if they'll even have food to eat or potable water by the time they're old.

The Right Move

Deglobalization is on. Commence the head-spinning of all mba's and biz students still wet behind the ears who have been chomping through theory after theory on the almighty-ness of globalization.

The basics:

There's also a greater appreciation on the part of Western firms that cheap labor isn't the be-all and end-all. Businesses have learned in the past two years that the longer the supply chain, the more possibilities there are for disruptions—from flu viruses, geopolitical disturbances, and spikes in energy prices. While China is still the world's factory, in an age of volatile demand, some companies have realized that manufacturing closer to home is more efficient, even if production costs are higher.

Cut out the 7000K production line that would make Alexander the Great blush and, voila, you have a local economy. Feels great to pay people who know, right?

1 Percent Doctrine

Friedman has lost a little luster in my eyes with his giant home in Maryland but he doesn't continue to provide spirited argument for massive, unconditional action to prevent climate change. His post today compares America's over the top, precautionary strategy on terrorism to it's terribly slack and unhurried pace to combat climate change.

The set-up:

“According to the Precautionary Principle, it is appropriate to respond aggressively to low-probability, high-impact events — such as climate change. Indeed, another vice president — Al Gore — can be understood to be arguing for a precautionary principle for climate change (though he believes that the chance of disaster is well over 1 percent).”

I would say it's well over 1 percent.

And now for the prestige:

When I see a problem that has even a 1 percent probability of occurring and is “irreversible” and potentially “catastrophic,” I buy insurance. That is what taking climate change seriously is all about.

Yeah, a nuke attack would be bad but it'd be mostly regional in scope and it's negative effects could be mitigated over a time span more suited to the humans who have to live through it. Climate change has a good chance of being permanent and a 100 percent change of affecting every living thing on earth on a timeline longer than most humans can comprehend.

The Nail in the Coffin

I haven't posted about the "Climategate" email thingy because frankly "it's a non-starter." (Actually you should read that link because it discusses the story more in depth). I've decided to post on it via request by one of my readers, I do have one, and because I found a satisfactory response to "Climategate" that should be the one that our "news" outlets take considering the nature of how the emails came to light, a.k.a., theft.

Here's a piece in full (because it's short) from my favorite Russian doomer, Dmitry Orlov:

I have been trying not to write this blog post, but in the end I couldn't resist. I know full well that I should just ignore this Climategate nonsense, but since what I have to say is quite short, I'll just go ahead and say it.

Update: For the past hour or so I've been busy rejecting comments that attempt to draw a false analogy between Climategate and Watergate. Um, no, this one is about science. Unlike administration or politics, science is done in the open. Every significant finding is published and subject to peer review. By definition, then, there is never anything important to "leak." Incorrect results and invalid theories are disproved and invalidated as a matter of course, ideally prior to publication, because scientists are skeptics who jealously guard their reputations. You are supposed to already know all this, so if any of it is still unclear to you, then please be sure to read point 4 below, and, unless you also happen to be cute, furry and affectionate, there will be no cat food for you.

1. The UEA emails were stolen. Data theft is a criminal activity. Use of stolen data is a criminal activity as well. People who get paid for publishing articles that are based on stolen data are dealing in stolen goods. This is no different from selling a house that you built using stolen materials.

2. Smearing some one's reputation based on lies is called libel. To defend oneself against the charge of libel, one generally has to present evidence to prove that one's statements are in fact true. Stolen data is not admissible as evidence.

3. To avoid charges of complicity, we should all try to avoid aiding and abetting people who do such things. For instance, it seems like a bad idea to let them use public airwaves and to publish their materials. Barring them would not constitute censorship, since one has to have the legal right to do something before it can be censored. This is no different from barring stolen goods from a marketplace.

4. Finally, there are the people who listen to those who are making libelous claims based on stolen data, thinking that they are valid points. This is, of course, pretty stupid of them. But how tolerant we should be of stupidity is an individual choice. For instance, my cat has no concept of cause and effect, which makes her do some really stupid things, but on the other hand she is cute and furry and affectionate. But I am glad that she doesn't have an opinion on climate change, because that might have made things a bit awkward between us.

These reasons should just about kill "Climategate" as a news story or even more importantly, as a "great unearthing" of some devious scientific conspiracy. Ethically they details of the emails are not reportable and scientifically the claims inside the emails are of nothing that hasn't been discussed in greater depth and with better documentation elsewhere.

Crop Failure Phase, Crop Failure Phase Compl...

I am routinely finding farm news as fascinatingly horrifying as a car crash. It's bad news but I can't look away. It's December 1st in Iowa and the corn harvest is only 87% complete.

The reasoning for the delay:

"Periodic rains, some shortage of grain drying capacity on farms and at grain elevators, and spot shortages of propane for drying, have prevented us from closing the books on the 2009 harvest," he adds. "But for many farmers at least the end is now in sight. Hopefully, those who spent part of Thanksgiving in a combine will not have to spend Christmas worrying about crops still in the field."

It's been a very mild and sporadic fall winter, atleast in Wisco where I live. An abnormally cold summer followed by a 3 week drought in September and a wet, mild October, November has kept corn growth down and has post-poned harvesting. Farmers should consider themselves lucky that they haven't even seen the first snow of the year yet. Snowfall in the Madison-area has been above normal the past two years. I would expend this trend to get worse as climate change continues. Then we're all really f-ed.

Famine, Pestillence, Etc

Bloomberg.com (not some hippy site) states that grain production in China will decline by 37% by 2050.

The crops affected would include wheat, corn and rice, Zheng Guoguang, head of the China Meteorological Administration, said in an article published on the agency’s Web site yesterday. Research shows that for every degree warmer the atmosphere becomes the key growing period for rice to develop properly will be shortened by an average of 7-8 days and by 17 days for the winter wheat crop, Zheng said. “Yield and quality will drop accordingly,” he said.

How is this bad? Let me count the ways. Starvation: with the 2nd largest population continually unable to feed itself there will be lots of famine related deaths. Or this could lead to the 2nd horseman, War: where an angry, nuclear China has nothing better to do than attack other nations which is a standard human reaction to desperation. And don't forget Economically. Yes, the biz folks who fear caps on carbon emissions because it'll cut into profit and growth will find less pockets available to buy their products (or make their products in China/Walmart's case) and then the agribusiness would be hurting too. Bloomberg interviewed people in a town hall and this was the average reaction.

So there's something in climate change for everyone. What's your part?

Support the EPA'ers?

Soldiers die. It's part of the job description. When they get called to duty there is a good chance they will be put in a situation that will lead to their death. Same with firemen, police, etc. Yet, the people who die don't really have any say on what they go to die for. Could be to retaliate against a homeland assault or to advance a wealthy elites access to resources. But they die nonetheless and we feel bad. Their sacrifice makes us ashamed of staying safe behind our 50" TVs. So we give them carte blanche as far as our tax dollars and support is concerned for better or worse.

Yglesias asks what if we had that same view for our other govt organizations?

And if you think about a comparable situation with the civilian bureaucracy, you’ll see that things are very difficult. It’s not a serious problem if a Republican president pursues a course that senior career officials at the Environment Protection Agency believe are destroying the planet. Nobody says we need to “support the Civil Rights Division litigators” or “give the social services workers the resources they need to finish the job” of fighting child poverty.

Instead of "Support our Troops" yellow ribbon bumper magnets how about a recycle sign magnet with "Help the Folks Who Help Us Drink Clean Water: EPA". It doesn't roll of the tongue as well but gives us something to think about.

Where the Wild Things Are

Kindergarten in the woods. Wish that was around when I was young. If the fact that most social change isn't brought about by one side winning but by the opposition dying then these kids who are growing up among the wilderness will be the "winners" of the climate battle. One can only hope.

When It Rains, It Contaminates

NYT has a pollution series or "Has science been good or bad for the world" or "No matter what we do we still lose". Today was on our lackluster sewage system.

Quick breakdown:

One goal of the Clean Water Act of 1972 was to upgrade the nation’s sewer systems, many of them built more than a century ago, to handle growing populations and increasing runoff of rainwater and waste. During the 1970s and 1980s, Congress distributed more than $60 billion to cities to make sure that what goes into toilets, industrial drains and street grates would not endanger human health.

But despite those upgrades, many sewer systems are still frequently overwhelmed, according to a New York Times analysis of environmental data. As a result, sewage is spilling into waterways.

Upgrade fail. But we punish those failures right?

But fewer than one in five sewage systems that broke the law were ever fined or otherwise sanctioned by state or federal regulators, the Times analysis shows.

Punishment fail. This points out two things: 1) we can't fix the problems we have, 2) we can't enforce the laws we have that were made to enforce the fixes, and/or 3) we don't have the balls to admit how we live is wrong. It's all three.

Prescription: We need to get over ourselves and move toward a more reasonable existence.

The Joke's On Us

Example of how we kill the planet: Man drives 1680 miles round trip to take a 3 hour improv class. Let me count the ways. A person with no vocation can drop $150 a week on gas to go to a improv class. I'll say it another way. A person who contributes nothing still has enough money to conjure up enough hydrocarbon slaves to transport him at least 2/3 the distance it took Lewis and Clark to travel in 1 year in about 15 hours so he can take an improv class. WTF.

He'd probably have a better shot spending the $150 on lottery tickets and in the mean time taking a class in Dallas (you're telling me they don't laugh in Texas?) and then when his ship comes in move to Chicago and take the class full time. Or hell, if you figure 4 x $150 is $600 I'm sure he could find a studio apartment in or around Chicago and take some public transportation to the class. Whatevs.

But the moral of the story is that someone who produces no directly measurable physical good (not necessarily meaning economically; he could volunteer in a hospice or soup kitchen) has enough resources to trade for the power to travel quite rapidly (compared to previous human history) to learn a career that has a lottery winner's chance of actually making a wage. Yep, that is a barometer of our times.