FP on Oil

Foreign Policy has a cool little symposium on oil going on at their site. It's a nice little smattering of the failure of green tech, the current state of oil and the (bleak) future of a world coming to grips with a declining oil supply.

Maybe this will do some good or maybe it's just another brain jam for the elites who read these sites yet never fail to be amazed by the politicians who play lip service to possibly the biggest foreseeable disaster in the history of humanity.

Go Outside

I have a tendency to align with the camp the believes that most of societies problem are inherent in what society is. Class warfare, workforce exploitation, climate change, mass extinction are all basics of a civilization based on consuming everything in it's wake to make sure nothing stands in the way of it's almighty growth. But if you were to just go outside and partake in nature, you might not fix everything but you'd be a lot nicer to your neighbors. You gotta start somewhere.

"A series of studies suggests immersion in nature "brings individuals closer to others, whereas human-made environments orient goals toward more selfish or
self-interested ends."

Think being in traffic makes you edgy? Simmering under those grating flourescent lights all day? It could very well be those things and all that stale recycled air that's got you ripped up. It's been said hunter/gatherers have the most leisure time of any type of society.

"Nature affords individuals the chance to follow their interests and reduces pressures, fears, introjects and social expectations."

I guess working 60 hours a week just to blow the paycheck on on giant plasma isn't what we really want.

The Volt: Shock and Awe 2.0

GM made a big hullabaloo last week with it's introduction of the it's electric car, the Volt which supposedly gets 200 miles to the charge beside being able to save floundering behemoth automotive companies.

My fave doomer J. H. Kunstler points out the incredibly glaring farce that the Volt will be with it's exorbitant price tag:

We're told the Volt will get the equivalent of over 200 miles-per-gallon, at less than 25 cents a charge from the plug on your garage wall, blah blah.
They estimate that it'll cost about $40,000. Do we detect a little problem right there? Like, the whole adult US population is going to rush out and buy new cars priced the same as today's Mercedes Benz? Good luck with that, GM, especially when money for car loans will be about as easy to get as a royal flush in online poker.

Peak Oil haters point to the Theory of "Theys". They will fix. They will invent something, etc. But the reality is even if there is a new technology (not to mention expensive) that requires the whole public to switch over from a current (very expensive) technology, where will they get the money to do so when there is no trade in value for the old stuff or have credit so bad that they can't get a loan for it? What a cluster this will be.

Though JHK gets a bit scary when he talks about the "pitchfork and torch" outcomes for the future:

Then, of course, there is the political problem that nobody is thinking
about, namely, what happens when a substantial portion of the public is permanently foreclosed from motoring because they've lost jobs and incomes and positions and vocations that they will never get back -- ? Do you think they'll just hike down the breakdown lanes with colorful bundles on their heads like the impoverished folk in other lands? Or will they put all those home arsenals to work? I can't wait to find out.

I'd Like to Return this Education

This is something I've thought about before: getting a refund on my college education. I spent four years getting a degree in a field I don't work in. What I did get is a piece of paper saying that I'm good at achieving in institutionalized education system and that should transfer nicely into a institutionalized workforce.

I know I wouldn't stand a chance that I'd get a refund and that college did teach me a few things. But the interesting thing about the student's case here is that the school she choose is vocational, meaning it doesn't exist to advance education like my big state school and all it's fancy engineering modeling tests. It exists to get people with marginal educational backgrounds a job.

The lawyers out there would love to William Jennings Bryan the poo-poo out of this case.

If you want a Russian's opinion on the failure of school at any level and, in particular, the American education system, see here.

We Need More Bruce Willis'

Nasa's got 20,000 problems and a dead Mars robot ain't one. Humans can worry about peak oil, climate change, rogue nukes and all the like but those are all human-created problems. We could all be worried about single nuke getting loose and maybe we lose a city. What happens when a football stadium boulder is lost in space that could destroy the entire planet?

NASA estimates that there are about 20,000 asteroids and comets in our solar system that are potential threats to Earth. They are larger than 460 feet in diameter — slightly smaller than the Superdome in New Orleans. So far, scientists know where about 6,000 of these objects are.

All the Young Dudes

Don't have jobs. Herbert tries to bring the unemployment to a head in his piece this week. The U.S. had dropped jobs like they were hot since last summer but the real scariness is the unemployment in our young men.

Only 65 of every 100 men aged 20 through 24 years old were working on any
given day in the first six months of this year. In the age group 25 through 34 years old, traditionally a prime age range for getting married and starting a family, just 81 of 100 men were employed.

For male teenagers, the numbers were disastrous: only 28 of every 100 males were employed in the 16- through 19-year-old age group. For minority teenagers, forget about it. The numbers are beyond scary; they’re catastrophic.

This is bad news. We all know what happens when young men go unemployed for extended periods of time. If things don't get better and we are not honest to ourselves about the challenges we face, things like this can get out of control.

Heinberg Brings the Epic

Richard Heinberg had a great post the other day for The Oil Drum. It is probably the clearest, most inclusive description of the current state of peak oil that I've read. Truly epic.

The U.S. Moved Towards Facism: 8 years ago

For all the talk of the current itteration of U.S. government being facist or socialist it's not really or atleast not as much as the goverment was post-9/11. I fail to see how trying to offer a public option for health care is anywhere close to wire taps, media control, and Guantanamo-esque imprisonment.

Saddam Is Still Alive

Something funny:

A Week of Doom

I don't think there's anything I like more than collapse talk and Slate's got a whole week of it. Today is America vs. Climate Change day. We get to take bets on what parts of the country are most likely to be hardest hit (Southwest, coast cities) and where we'll go if things get bad (Canada). I've hedged my bets and will be residing in Wisconsin.

But maybe I should have booked my ticket for Buffalo, NY:

As for Buffalo's winning characteristics, Shibley notes that "you've got
agricultural land around our perimeter, you have the power from the water and [Niagara] Falls, and you have the industrial infrastructure to die for, the roads and railroads." And even with all of those enticements, there's still plenty of primo waterfront land available for purchase. As he points out one inviting tract, Shibley shouts: "Come home, we're ready to go!"

Smoke'm if you Got'em

Sharon Begley just put an environmental Freddy Kreuger in my dreams with her post in Newsweek. When a major news source reports some real stats and with the sense of urgency they deserve it makes my heart flutter.

Here's scary quote #1:

The loss of Arctic sea ice "is well ahead of" what the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change forecast, largely because emissions of carbon dioxide have topped what the panel—which foolishly expected nations to care enough about global warming to do something about it—projected. "The models just aren't keeping up"

Right now climate change is "off" everything: radar, charts, the hook, the chain, the wall. Everything.

Scary quote #2:

So while the IPCC projected that sea level would rise 16 inches this century, "now a more likely figure is one meter [39 inches] at the least," says Carlson. "Chest high instead of knee high, with half to two thirds of that due to Greenland." Hence the "no idea how bad it was."

Let's reiterate: No Idea How Bad It Was. That's probably one epitaph that's underused.

And because bad things come in three's, Scary quote #3:

But estimates of how much carbon is locked into Arctic permafrost were, it turns out, woefully off. "It's about three times as much as was thought, about 1.6
trillion metric tons, which has surprised a lot of people," says Edward Schuur of the University of Florida. "It means the potential for positive feedbacks is greatly increased." That 1.6 trillion tons is about twice the amount now in the atmosphere. And Schuur's measurements of how quickly CO2 can come out of permafrost, reported in May, were also a surprise: 1 billion to 2 billion tons per year. Cars and light trucks in the U.S. emit about 300 million tons per year.

So this is what happens when an unstoppable force meets an incapable species.

And just to further my point that the U.S. government and just about all other governments are walking zombie epic fails:

In an insightful observation in The Guardian this month, Jim Watson of the University of Sussex wrote that "a new breed of climate sceptic is becoming more common": someone who doubts not the science but the policy response. Given the pathetic (non)action on global warming at the G8 summit, and the fact that the energy/climate bill passed by the House of Representatives is so full of holes and escape hatches that it has barely a prayer of averting dangerous climate change, skepticism that the world will get its act together seems appropriate.

We are literally looking extinction in the face and we are worried about the 4 year presidential cycle. May shame be cast upon all our souls.

Funny Thing Happened on the Way to 2050

There's a lot of people looking for green shoots out there. The economy sucks, climate change, the flip-flopping want/lack of desire for health care reform. So who better to turn to than Global Business Network who acts as a consultant for govt's and businesses alike. What do they consult on: the future. (Weeeee!)

Just so happens Slate has a piece on the GBN's predictions for 2050 of which they give 4 possible outcomes. These outcomes aren't "set in stone" predictions but when two of the four involve the dissolution of the United States and the third being a "global Napoleon" you know things are going to be good.

Just a snippet (gotta love those African hackers):

One of the timelines, the "Long Crisis," begins with "global storming," a
run of catastrophic weather events around the world. By 2023, the United States has defaulted on its debts to China. Eventually, in the aftermath of Global Famine II, the U.S. breaks into eight pieces. On the plus side, African biohackers find a cure for AIDS in 2026. Yippee!

Yes, What Do We Pay Them For?

If this does not prove this government is broken than nothing does. Via Climate Progress via the Washington Post, Byron Dorgan drops this revealing bomb:

“It’s very hard for Congress to do one big thing, much less do a couple of really big issues at the same time,” said Sen. Byron L. Dorgan (D-N.D.), whose state produces coal as well as wind power.

Seriously? SERIOUSLY! SERIOUSLY!!!! Why would you ever, in any job, every say that you can't handle your job out loud? I work in sales and if I ever said "I can't work that large sale let alone multiple large sales at once," I would not make very much money at the minimum and worse I would not be up for any promotions to any other position, ever. Now, maybe if I had lobbyists dropping fat coin in my pocket each month then I wouldn't worry about doing anything hard but I don't and I'm pretty sure the other 303, 824, 540 Americans don't either.*

*(well, maybe Wall Street CEOs and their bailout bonuses)